The potential of artificial intelligence technology is comparable to the invention of the steam engine or the triumph of the Web. We are currently experiencing nothing less than an epochal disruption that will fundamentally change the way people live and work around the world. This is due to a whole range of factors that influence and reinforce each other. adesso highlights the most important drivers of this development:
- 1. The path of digitalisation and dematerialisation: Streaming instead of vinyl records. Digital pay instead of cash. AI assistants instead of flesh-and-blood advisors. If we imagine how many material products have become superfluous thanks to smartphone apps alone, it becomes clear that ever more physical objects are disappearing and being represented digitally instead. At the same time, these digital objects are becoming increasingly connected, for example in the Internet of Things or the Internet of Everything. This means that more and higher quality data is available for AI development.
- 2. The influence of big data: Various sources such as sensors, digital processes and social media generate vast amounts of data at companies – increasingly in real time. That means you can rely on a large, comprehensive, up-to-date and rapidly growing reservoir of data (volume) when you use AI. In addition to the sheer volume of data, big data is defined by the high speed of data processing (velocity), the scope and format of the data sources (variety), the accuracy and reliability of the data (veracity) and its significance for specific applications (value).
- 3. Moore’s Law and the grain of rice phenomenon: Moore’s Law describes what happens to the famous grain of rice on the first chessboard square when it grows exponentially. By simply doubling from square to square, a gigantic quantity of grains weighing 461 million tonnes is created on the 64th square. IT technology is also developing at a correspondingly rapid pace, driving AI development at the same speed – and will continue to do so. This growth forms the technical basis for ever more powerful IT architectures, which in turn provide the basis for the rapid development of artificial intelligence.
- 4. The flow of investments: Huge sums of money are being invested in AI development. It is regarded as the number one driver of innovation, producing new products and services that will shift market shares, positions of power and spheres of influence. Last year, Bloomberg Intelligence predicted that the sales volume for generative AI would grow to an estimated USD 1.3 trillion by 2032 – trend rising. The software market alone accounts for 280 billion US dollars. This ongoing rise will influence economic, labour market and geopolitical dynamics. Trade and enterprise are just as challenged by this as societies and governments.
- 5. The hype cycle of technological innovations: With these driving forces behind it, AI follows the typical hype cycle pattern defined by the market research company Gartner. Accordingly, the development of new technologies is characterised by five phases. These include an initial phase that arouses interest in a new technology, a phase of exuberant expectations, the valley of disillusionment, the path of realisation with meaningful practical implementation and, finally, productive maturity. Not all technologies follow the path or make it to the final stage. For KI, on the other hand, this is beyond question.
